Independent Dubai real estate intelligence

Property decisions.
Measured.

Cut through the sales pitch. AssetMetrics compiles the real 2026 numbers behind Dubai residential — index moves, area-level yield, supply and developer data — into one transparent, sourced view built for serious buyers.

AKSMJL
Built on public market dataValuStrat · DLD · REIDIN · Engel & Völkers — cited throughout
MARKET PULSEDubai residential VPI
JUNE 2026
220.0VALUSTRAT PRICE INDEX
Monthly−1.0%
Yearly+0.1%
Off-plan share75%
Gross yield, JVC 7.8% Highest-liquidity ready market, June 2026
AssetScore 91/100 Dubai Hills Estate — balanced growth
VPI ·220.0 pts −1.0% MoM
H1 2026 transactions ·87,800 deals
H1 2026 value ·AED 291.7bn
Off-plan share ·71% of H1 volume
Off-plan avg ·AED 2,030/sqft +12.2% YoY
Ready avg ·AED 1,691/sqft +5.6% YoY
Population ·4.0M residents +6.1%/yr
New arrivals, H1 2026 ·~121,000
The market, without the noise

One market. Two very
different realities.

Headline averages hide the details that matter. Villas and apartments have moved in opposite directions since February 2026 — separating them, not the citywide average, is what actually tells you where risk sits.

Villa vs. apartment price index

6-month indexed trend, Jan 2026 = 100 · ValuStrat sub-indices
Villas +2% YoY Apartments −3% YoY

Indexed from ValuStrat's June 2026 monthly deltas (villas −1.2% MoM / +2% YoY; apartments −0.6% MoM / −3% YoY). The 6-month path is AssetMetrics' interpolation of those reported points, not a raw monthly series.

ASSETMETRICS VIEW

The correction is broad but shallow, and it's decelerating — June's citywide drop was the softest in months, with ready-home sales up 46.8% MoM. Villas are still up on the year; apartments are the segment absorbing the correction, and unevenly at that.

Best annual performersYoY
Jumeirah Islands (villa)+17.9%
Emirates Hills (villa)+10.7%
DIFC (apartment)+8.1%
Weakest annual performersYoY
Burj Khalifa (apartment)−16.7%
Jumeirah Beach Residence−13.0%
Mudon (villa)−5.0%
H1 2026 TRANSACTIONS87,800deals · AED 291.7bn
AVG. HOME PRICE, H1 2026+9.0%vs. H1 2025
READY SALES, JUNE 2026+46.8%strongest month in 3 years
ULTRA-PRIME DEALS (>$10M)296+16% vs. H1 2025

Transaction momentum through 2025

Quarterly sales transactions, all property types · Source: DLD via Dubai Real Estate Club

Full-year 2025: 214,900 transactions worth AED 682.5bn — up 18.8% in volume and 30.7% in value versus 2024, an all-time record. H1 2026 volume (87,800) reflects a different DLD reporting cut and isn't directly comparable quarter-to-quarter with the 2025 series above.

What's driving June 2026

  • Off-plan registrations rose 32% month-on-month and now make up 75% of all June sales — Azizi Venice alone accounted for 26.1% of off-plan volume.
  • Jumeirah Village Circle and Jebel Ali Village led ready-home resale activity; Jumeirah Village Circle and Business Bay led overall transaction count.
  • Rents softened up to 20% in many communities — a tenant's market that's pulling some renters toward buying instead.
  • Ultra-prime activity stayed resilient: 19 deals above AED 30M in June, 5 of them above AED 50M.
Community intelligence

Compare what
matters, area by area.

Eight investment stories, ranked on AssetMetrics' AssetScore — a blend of price resilience, income, liquidity and supply risk. Not a ranking of "best areas," a ranking of clearest evidence.

Price per sq ft, ranked

Average transacted apartment price · Source: Engel & Völkers, 2026

Gross rental yield, ranked

Blended studio–3BR estimate · Source: GuestReady / Banke International, 2026

Compare two areas side by side

Pick any two communities from the dataset above — AssetScore, yield, price per sq ft and momentum, lined up directly.

Deep dive · supply

Homes due — or a
pipeline illusion?

Roughly 87,000 homes are scheduled for delivery across 2025–2026 combined. The honest question isn't the headline count — it's how much of it actually lands on time.

Delivered vs. scheduled residential units

Source: market delivery trackers, 2026
44,000+
2025
Delivered
42,000–45,000
2026
Scheduled
Higher
2027
Directional, unconfirmed

Hatched bars mark scheduled, not delivered, supply. Analysts widely note that Dubai handover timelines slip — paperwork, contractor capacity and phased infrastructure regularly push completions into the following year, so scheduled ≠ realized.

SUPPLY RISK, NOT A REASON TO PANIC

Concentrated handovers land hardest on the segments already absorbing the correction — Dubai South, MBR City, Dubailand and parts of Business Bay carry the heaviest 2026 completion load. That's a reason to weight liquidity and delivery track record into a purchase decision, not to avoid off-plan altogether.

Dubai SouthHeavy 2026 handovers
MBR CityHeavy 2026 handovers
Business Bay towersBinghatti · DG1 · Vento
Dubailand villa phasesVillas + Al Furjan

Top off-plan launch by June 2026 volume: Azizi Venice (26.1% share) and City of Arabia (5%). Top ready-resale markets: Jumeirah Village Circle (11%) and Jebel Ali Village (7%).

Who's building it

Developer market
share, 2026 YTD.

Ten developers account for AED 86.8bn of sales and 36,808 transactions this year. Value share and volume share tell different stories — worth knowing which one a project's developer actually leads on.

Sales value, 2026 YTD (as of July)

AED billions · Source: ValuStrat / Zawya developer rankings

Value leader ≠ volume leader

Emaar leads sales value at AED 30.6bn — 83% ahead of second-placed DAMAC — driven by fewer, higher-priced units (5,550 transactions). Azizi moves the most units of any developer, 8,411 in 2026 YTD, by dominating the sub-AED 2M affordable segment. Neither figure alone tells you about delivery risk or resale liquidity — check both.

Highest transaction volumeUnits, 2026 YTD
Azizi Developments8,411
DAMAC Properties6,387
Emaar Properties5,550
Binghatti Developers5,188
Who's buying

Demand is still
overwhelmingly foreign.

92% of Dubai's 4.0 million residents are expatriates, and five nationalities account for nearly three-quarters of foreign-buyer transactions. That concentration is a tailwind — and a concentration risk.

Foreign buyer share by nationality

Share of foreign-buyer transactions, 2025 · Source: DLD via Dubai Real Estate Club
POPULATION4.0M+6.1% / year
EXPATRIATE SHARE92%of residents
NEW ARRIVALS, H1 2026~121Kdemand driver
2030 POPULATION TARGET5.0Mofficial projection
Decisions, not dashboards

From raw data to a
clear investment view.

We turn scattered transactions, rent evidence and project records into a decision system you can actually check the working on.

01

Verify the evidence

DLD transaction records, ValuStrat and REIDIN indices, registered project data, and rental evidence from multiple licensed sources — cross-checked before anything is scored.

02

Compare like with like

Ready versus off-plan. Villa versus apartment. Studio yield versus 3-bedroom yield. Fixed baskets, not a changing sales mix that flatters whichever segment sold most this month.

03

Score the opportunity

Price resilience, income, liquidity and supply risk, combined into one AssetScore per community — so a headline number never hides which lever is actually driving it.

How AssetScore is weighted

Every community score on this site blends four inputs. None dominates on its own — a high-yield area with weak liquidity, or a resilient area with heavy incoming supply, both get pulled back toward the middle.

Price resilience · 30%
Income · 25%
Liquidity · 25%
Supply risk · 20%
Price resilience — 12-month index stability
Income — gross rental yield
Liquidity — resale & transaction velocity
Supply risk — scheduled handovers vs. demand
Quick yield check

What would this
budget actually earn?

Pick a community and a budget — we apply that area's real blended gross yield, not a citywide average that hides where the income actually is.

AED 500KAED 10M
Expected gross yield 7.8%
Estimated annual rent AED 156,000 Gross figure before service charges, vacancy periods and management costs. Based on AssetMetrics' blended area yield estimate — actual unit-level yield varies by size, floor and finish.
Research desk

Know what changed.
And why it matters.

Short, evidence-first briefs — each one built from the same public data behind the charts above, not commentary dressed up as analysis.

Market note · August 2026

Dubai's correction is slowing. Is this the moment to buy?

Villas are up 2% on the year while apartments are down 3% — and June's citywide decline was the softest since the correction began in February. A clear-eyed look at what's decelerating and what isn't.

−1.0%June MoM, vs −1.8% in earlier months
Read the data
Deep dive · supply

87,000 homes due in two years — or a pipeline illusion?

2025 delivered 44,000+ units; 2026 is scheduled for 42,000–45,000 more. Why "scheduled" and "delivered" tell very different stories about Dubai's next cycle, and which areas carry the heaviest load.

2027Pipeline described as "even higher" by analysts
Read the data
Market note · June 2026

Off-plan is 3 in 4 sales again. What that means for risk.

Off-plan registrations jumped 32% month-on-month in June, taking their share of sales to 75%. That concentration raises the stakes on developer delivery track record — not a reason to avoid off-plan, a reason to underwrite it properly.

75%Off-plan share of June 2026 sales
Read the data
Deep dive · yield

Where the yield actually is: affordable vs. prime.

Jumeirah Village Circle yields nearly twice what Palm Jumeirah does — 7.8% versus 4.7% gross. Prime buys capital preservation and liquidity; affordable buys income. Knowing which one you're actually optimizing for changes the shortlist.

3.1ptYield gap, JVC vs. Palm Jumeirah
Read the data

Methodology & sources

Every figure on this page traces back to a named public source current as of publication. AssetScore, momentum estimates for individual communities, and the 6-month indexed chart are AssetMetrics' own modeling, built on top of that data and clearly labelled as such throughout — never presented as a raw reported number.

  • ValuStratDubai Residential VPI, June 2026
  • Dubai Land Department (DLD)Transaction & registration records
  • REIDINResidential Sales Price Index, Q1 2026
  • Engel & VölkersAverage price per sq ft by community, 2026
  • GuestReady / Banke InternationalRental yield by area, 2026
  • IndexBoxDubai Real Estate H1 2026 report
  • Arabian Business / getstakeQ2 2026 market commentary
  • Dubai Real Estate Club2025 statistics compendium
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